Rio Grande Basin Hydroeconomic Model a.k.a. Bucket Model
Current Version: 2018/02/25
Source Code: Github Page Here
Modeling Software: The General Algebraic Modeling Software (GAMS)
Introduction
The “Bucket Model” is a simple coarse-scale basin model that simulates all major water sources, sinks, uses, and losses as well as economic values of water as well as institutional constraints governing water supply and use for the Middle Rio Grande between the inflow to Elephant Butte Reservoir and Fort Quitman on the Rio Grande. This model is designed to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of the hydrology, agronomy, institutions, and economics to guide analysis of policy and management questions that are important to stakeholders.
The current version of the model is a simple “three bucket” model that reflects water storage, inflow, and outflow for project storage and for the region’s two major aquifers, the Mesilla and Hueco. In this version, the three water users are irrigated agriculture, urban demands, and environmental / recreational demands for water volumes in surface storage. For aquifers, the major uses are agriculture and urban use. Existing as well as potential water use is predicted as a constrained optimization model that identifies water use and flow patterns that maximize discounted net present value of water by adjusting water use patterns in the river-reservoir-aquifer system for the model’s time horizon.
Required inputs include hydrologic data such as surface inflows to storage, crop water requirements by crop, surface treaty delivery requirements from the U.S. to Mexico, evaporation rates from surface reservoir storage, and reservoir capacity. Water use demand data include crop yields, costs of production, crop price, price elasticity of demand, and urban population.
Model outputs include total farm income, recreation economic benefits, total urban net benefits, reservoir releases, surface storage volume, groundwater pumping and recharge, 1906 Treaty deliveries by the U.S. to Mexico, reservoir surface evaporation, total water use, and the discounted net present value of total economic benefits and its distribution among major water users.
Papers
Ward et. al., 2019
The economics of aquifer protection plans under climate water stress: New insights from hydroeconomic modeling.
Journal of Hydrology, Volume 576, September 2019, Pages 667-684
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.081
Model Composition
Flow nodes
- 5 river gauge nodes
- 1 streamgauge inflow node San Marcial above Elephant Butte
- 5 watershed point inflow nodes from ungauged precip into river reaches
- 5 diversion nodes
- 5 consumptive use nodes
- 5 surface water return flow nodes
- 2 groundwater pumping nodes
- 1 reservoir storage release node
Stock nodes
- 1 reservoir node
- 2 aquifer nodes
Sets
| Set | Set Elements | Set Description | Elements | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flows | i | Location of important nodes in middle RG basin--Elephant Butte to MX. | Marcial_h_f | Headwater flow nodes |
| Wshed_1_h_f | Headwater flow nodes | |||
| RG_Caballo_out_v_f | RGR project storage outflow gauge on Rio Grande | |||
| RG_El_Paso_v_f | New Mexico Texas State Line on Rio Grande | |||
| RG_above_MX_v_f | Rio Grande above Mexico diversion | |||
| RG_below_EPID_v_f | Gauge below El Paso irrigation diversion use on river | |||
| EBID_d_f | Divertion nodes | |||
| LCMI_d_f | Divertion nodes | |||
| EPMI_d_f | Divertion nodes | |||
| MXID_d_f | Divertion nodes | |||
| EPID_d_f | Divertion nodes | |||
| EBID_u_f | Consumptive use flow nodes | |||
| LCMI_u_f | Consumptive use flow nodes | |||
| EPMI_u_f | Consumptive use flow nodes | |||
| MXID_u_f | Consumptive use flow nodes | |||
| EPID_u_f | Consumptive use flow nodes | |||
| EBID_rr_f | River return flow nodes | |||
| LCMI_rr_f | River return flow nodes | |||
| EPMI_rr_f | River return flow nodes | |||
| MXID_rr_f | River return flow nodes | |||
| EPID_rr_f | River return flow nodes | |||
| EBID_ra_f | Aquifer return flow nodes | |||
| LCMI_ra_f | Aquifer return flow nodes | |||
| EPMI_ra_f | Aquifer return flow nodes | |||
| MX_ra_f | Aquifer return flow nodes | |||
| EPID_ra_f | Aquifer return flow nodes | |||
| Store_rel_f | Res storage-to-river release node (outflow - inflow) | |||
| Stocks | u | Location of key water storage elements | Storage_res_s | Caballo/Elephant Butte reservoir location |
| Mesilla_aqf_s | Mesilla Aquifer Location | |||
| Hueco_aqf_s | Hueco Bolson location | |||
| Crop | j | crop | pecans | Pecan orchards |
| veges | Veges (chile, onions, lettuce, etc..) | |||
| forage | Cattle feed | |||
| Technology | k | irrigation technology | flood | Flood irrigation technology |
| Time | t | years | tfirst | Starting year |
| tmid | Middle years | |||
| tlast | Terminal year | |||
| tlater | All years after initial | |||
| Policy | p | Policy scenarios (historical or user changeable) | 1-policy_hist | Historical policy: historical starting surface storage volume all years |
| 2-policy_base | Base policy: historical starting surface volume in year 1 (1996) | |||
| 3-policy_new | New policy: 10% reduced starting surface storage volume year 1 (1996) | |||
| Water Supply | w | Supply scenarios (climate, water import, etc) | 1-w_supl_base | Historical inflows at San Marcial Gauge (1996-2015) |
| 2-w_supl_new | New inflow scenario, 10% reduced inflows at San Marcial Gauge (1996-2015) |
Input Parameters
List of input parameters available on the user interface:
| Parameter | Label | Description | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield_p | Observed Crop Yield | Measurement of the amount of a crop that was harvested per unit of land area. | tons/ac |
| Price_p | Observed Crop Prices | Observed crop prices | USD/ton |
| Bau_p | Observed Irrigation Water Depth | Water per acre of various dimensions | ft |
| lan_p | Observed Land in production | Land in production over all observed historical years | 1000ac |
| Cost_p | Crop Production Costs | Crop production costs per acre | USD/ac |
| ag_gw_pump_capacity_p | Agricultural pumping capacity | Agricultural pumping capacity in acre feet per year by aquifer | AF/yr |
| ag_av_gw_cost_p | Agricultural Average Costs of Pumping Ground Water | Average irrigation costs of pumping ground water ($ per a-f) | USD/AF |
| Netrev_acre_p | Net Farm Income per Acre | Net revenue per acre observed in base year price x yield - cost ($ per acre) | USD/AC |
| elast_p | Urban Price Elasticity of Demand | A measure of the relationship between a change in the quantity of water demanded and a change in its price | N/A |
| urb_price_p | Observed Historical Urban Price of Water | Observed historical urban price of water | $1000/1000AF |
| urb_use_p | Observed Historical Urban Water Deliveries | Observed historical urban water deliveries | 1000AF/yr |
| urb_Av_cost0_p | Urban Cost of Supply | Urban cost of supply per unit delivered to the home | USD/AF |
| urb_cost_grow_p | Urban Average Cost Growth Rate | Urban average cost growth rate | prop/yr |
| pop0_p | Initial Number of Urban Water Buying Households | Initial number of urban water buying households | 1000 |
| urb_gw_cost_grow_p | Urban Average Pumping Cost Growth Rate | Urban average pumping cost growth rate | prop |
| rho_pop_p | Urban Water Buying Households Growth Rate | Urban water buying households growth rate | prop/yr |
| urb_av_gw_cost0_p | Urban Average Pumping Cost | Average cost of urban aquifer pumping excluding treatment | 1000USD |
| urb_gw_pump_capacity_p | Urban Pumping Capacity | Urban pumping capacity | KAF/yr |
| pop_p | Urban Water Buying Households By Year | Number of urban households hooked up to water utility | 1000 |
| urb_av_cost_p | Urban Average Cost in Future by Year | Predicted average total cost of supplying urban water | 1000USD |
| urb_av_gw_cost_p | Urban Average Groundwater Pump Cost by Year | Predicted average groundwater pumping costs for urban use | 1000USD |
| us_mx_1906_p | Observed US-Mexico 1906 Treaty Flows at Acequia Madre | Observed US-Mexico 1906 treaty flows at Acequia Madre | 1000AF/yr |
| tx_proj_op_p | TX proportion of SAN MARCIAL FLOWS | Texas proportion of San Marcial Flows according to the 2008 Project Operating Agreement | prop |
| sw_sustain_p | Ending Proportion of Starting Surface Water Storage | Ending proportion of starting surface water storage | prop |
| gw_sustain_p | Ending Proportion of Starting Ground Water Storage | Ending proportion of starting ground water storage | prop |
| Bmda_p | Urban Return to the Aquifer as a Proportion of Divert | Urban return to the aquifer as a proportion of divert | prop |
| Bmxda_p | MX Return to the Aquifer System as a Proportion of MX Diversions | MX return to the aquifer system as a proportion of MX diversions | prop |
| sourc_p | Annual Water Inflows at San Marcial Gauge | Annual water inflows at San Marcial gauge | 1000AF/yr |
| gaugeflow_p | Annual Gauged Streamflows | Annual gauged streamflows at selected gauges | 1000AF/yr |
| z0_p | Initial Project Storage Level | Initial reservoir levels at reservoir stock nodes | 1000AF |
| zmax_p | Reservoir Storage Capacity | Maximum reservoir storage capacity | 1000AF |
| z_p | Rio Grande Project Storage by Year | Rio Grande Project Storage by year (EB + Caballo) | 1000AF |
| residdd_p | Observed Predicted Storage by Year | Observed Predicted Storage by year | 1000AF |
| depth0_p | Initial Aquifer Level by Aquifer | Aquifer starting storage level | 1000AF |
| qmax_p | Aquifer Storage Capacity | Aquifer maximum storage capacity | 1000AF |
| aq_area_p | Land Area Overlying Aquifer | Land area overlying aquifer | 1000ac |
| recharge_p | Annual Mountain Front Aquifer Recharge | Annual mountain front aquifer recharge | 1000AF/yr |
| porosity_p | Average Aquifer Porosity | Average aquifer porosity | N/A |
| precip_rat_p | Reservoir Precipitation Rate | Feet gained per exposed acre per year | ft/yr |
| Evap_rate_p | Reservoir evaporation rate | Feet lost per exposed acre | ft/yr |
| LANDRHS_p | Developed Land Area by Irrigation District | Land available by irrigation district | 1000ac |
| SW_Treat_capac_p | Urban Surface water treatment capacity by city | Urban Surface water treatment capacity by city | 1000AF |
| Bag_pump_aqf_return_p | Proportion of Agricultural Water Pumped Recharging Pumped Aquifer | prop | |
| urb_av_back_cost0_p | Urban Backstop Technology Costs | Urban backstop technology costs including treatment approximate cost of imported water as of 2017 | |
| urb_back_cost_grow_p | Growth in Urban Backstop Technology Costs | Growth in urban backstop technology costs proportion per year (May Fall) | prop |
| urb_av_back_cost_p | Future Urban Ave Backstop Technology Cost | prop | |
| Burb_back_aqf_rch_p | Proportion of Urban Water from Backstop Technology Recharging Aquifer |
Output Variables
Output variables included on interface as of version Beta 0.7:
| Variable | Label | Description | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| evaporation | Evaporation Volume | Reservoir surface evaporation volume by year | KAF/yr |
| B1_area_vol_p | Impact of Changes in Volume on Changes in Area (acres per 1000 ac feet) | Impact of changes in volume on changes in area (acres per 1000 ac feet) | |
| Z0_p | Initial Reservoir Levels at Reservoir Stock Nodes | Initial reservoir levels at reservoir stock nodes | KAF |
| water_flows | Water Flows | Water flows by period | KAF/yr |
| water_stocks | Water Stocks | Reservoir water storage | KAF/yr |
| wat_stock0_p | Initial water stocks | Initial water stocks | |
| river_flows | River Flows | River flows | KAF/yr |
| inflows_p | Inflows by Period Water | Inflows into system from various sources | KAF/yr |
| diversions | Water Diversions | Water diversions | KAF/yr |
| SWacres | Surface Irrigated Land in Production Surface | Irrigated land in production | Kac/yr |
| GWacres | Aquifer Irrigated Land in Production | Aquifer irrigated land in production | Kac/yr |
| surf_use | Surface Water Use | Surface water Use | KAF/yr |
| r_return_o | Return Flows from River to River | Return flows from river to river | KAF/yr |
| pop_p | Urban Population by Year | Urban population by year | 1000s |
| price_p | Crop Prices | Crop prices | $/ton |
| cost_p | Crop Production Costs | Crop production costs | $/ac |
| netrev_acre_p | Crop Net Revenue per Acre | Crop net revenue per acre | $/ac |
| land_p | Land in Production in Acres | Land in production in acres | acres |
| yield_p | Crop Yield | Crop yield | tons/ac |
| urb_price | Urban Price | Urban water price | USD/AF |
| urb_con_surp | Urban Consumer Surplus | Difference between what customer is willing to pay to what he has to pay | KUSD/yr |
| urb_use_p_cap | Urban Use per Capita | Total urban use divided by total customer households | AF/Person |
| ag_value | Agricultural Net Benefits by Crop | Agricultural net economic value (total profitability) | KUSD/yr |
| ag_ben | Agricultural Benefits | Net income over crops by farming region and year | KUSD/yr |
| ag_m_value | Agricultural Marginal Value of Water | Farm price of water plus scarcity value | USD/AF |
| yield | Crop Yield | Yield by crop and technology | tons/ac |
| Ba_use_p | Crop Water Consumption Depth (ET) | Crop water consumption depth (ET) | feet |
| urb_av_cost_p | Future Urban Average Cost | Future urban average cost | $ / a-f |
| elast_p | Urban Price Elasticity of Demand | Urban price elasticity of demand | |
| tx_proj_op_p | Proportion of San Marcial Gauged Flows Going to NM-TX Stateline | Proportion of San Marcial Gauged flows going to NM-TX stateline | 0 - 1 |
| ag_sw_use | Agricultural Surface Water Use | Agricultural Surface Water Use by period | KAF/yr |
| urb_pump | Urban Water Pumping | Urban water pumping from aquifer | KAF/yr |
| urb_sw_use | Urban Surface Water Use | Urban water use from surface water | KAF/yr |
| recharge_p | Annual Average Recharge | KAF/yr | |
| urb_revenue | Urban Revenue | Price per acre feet multiplied by quantity supplied by the urban supplier | KUSD/yr |
| urb_gross_ben | Urban Gross Economic Benefit | Revenue plus consumer surplus | KUSD/yr |
| urb_costs | Urban Costs of Production | Total cost of urban supplied water | KUSD/yr |
| urb_value | Urban Total Net Benefit | Producer plus consumer surplus (urban gross benefits - cost of supply) | KUSD/yr |
| urb_value_af | Urban Net Value per Unit Water | Urban economic benefits per acre foot | USD/ac-ft |
| urb_use | Urban Water Use | Urban water use (surface diversions + pumping) | KAF/yr |
| urb_m_value | Urban Marginal Value | Marginal net benefit (price - marginal cost) | USD/ac-ft |
| zmax_p | Maximum Reservoir Storage Capacity | Maximum reservoir storage capacity | KAF |
| surf_area | Total Surface Area by Period | Total surface area by period | Kac/yr |
| env_ben | Environmental Benefit from Flows | Environmental benefits by year (willingness to pay for environmental flows) | KUSD/yr |
| tot_ben | Total Benefits Over Uses | Sum of total benefits over region and uses | KUSD/yr |
| dnpv_ben | Discounted Net Present Value of Benefits | Sum of total benefits over region, uses and time periods | KUSD |
| us_mx_1906_p | Actual Deliveries at Aceqia Madre Gauge at US-MX Border | Actual deliveries at Aceqia Madre gauge at US-MX border | KAF |
| sw_sustain_p | Terminal Period Surface Water Sustainability Percentage | Terminal period surface water sustainability percentage | 0 - 1 |
| gw_sustain_p | Terminal Period Groundwater Sustainability Proportion | Terminal period groundwater sustainability proportion | 0 - 1 |
| rec_ben | Recreation Benefit | Reservoir recreation benefits by year (willingness to pay for recreation values) | KUSD/yr |
| tot_ag_pump | Total Agricultural Pumping | Total agricultural pumping summed over crops and technology | KAF/yr |
| gw_stocks | Groundwater Aquifer Stocks | Groundwater aquifer stocks by period | KAF/yr |
| gw_stocks0_p | Groundwater Aquifer Starting Stocks | Groundwater aquifer starting stocks | KAF |
| urb_gw_pump_capacity_p | Pumping Capacity by Urban Area | Pumping capacity by urban area | KAF/yr |
| qmax_p | Maximum Aquifer Storage Capacity | Maximum aquifer storage capacity | KAF |
| urb_av_gw_cost_p | Future Urban Average Groundwater Pumping Costs | Future urban average groundwater pumping costs | $/a-f |
| ag_av_gw_cost_p | Future Agricultural Average Groundwater Pumping Costs | Future agricultural average groundwater pumping costs | KAF/yr |
| urb_gw_pump_capacity_p | Maximum Urban Groundwater Pumping Capacity | Maximum urban groundwater pumping capacity | KAF/yr |
| ag_gw_pump_capacity_p | Maximum Agricultural Groundwater Pumping Capacity | Maximum agricultural groundwater pumping capacity | KAF/yr |
| landrhs_p | Upper Bound on Developed Irrigated Land | Upper bound on developed irrigated land | acres |
| aquifer_depth | Groundwater Aquifer Depth | Groundwater aquifer depth | ft/yr |
| porosity_p | Average Porosity of Each Aquifer (Proportion That Holds Water) | 0 - 1 | |
| qmax_p | Maximum Aquifer Storage Capacity | KAF | |
| q0_p | Starting Aquifer Storage Level | KAF | |
| aq_area_p | Plan View Aquifer Area | 1000 acres | |
| a_return_o | Agricultural Return Flows from River to Aquifer | Surface return flow from agricultural river diversions that return to the aquifer | KAF/yr |
| ag_pump_aq_rch | Agricultural Return from Pumping to Aquifer | Agricultural pumping that contributes to aquifer recharge | KAF/yr |
| z_p | Rio Grande Project Surface Storage by Year | Rio Grande Project Surface Storage by year | KAF |
| xv_lb_p | Lower Bound Proportion on Stream Gauge Flows Compared to History | Lower bound proportion on stream gauge flows compared to history | 0 - 1 |
| xv_ub_p | Upper Bound Proportion on Stream Gauge Flows Compared to History | Upper bound proportion on stream gauge flows compared to history | 0 - 1 |
| gaugeflow_p | Annual Historical Gauged Stream Flows | Annual historical gauged stream flows | KAF/yr |
| model_resid_p | Model Residual Compared to Predicted Flows (Not Used) | Model residual compared to predicted flows (not used) | |
| precip | Total Precipitation by Period | Total precipitation by period | KAF/yr |
| residdd_p | Residual from Observed Storage | Residual from observed storage | |
| tacres | Total Acreage by Crop | Total irrigated land in production summmed over crops and technologies | Kac/yr |
| tswacres | Total Surface Water Acreage | Total surface water acreage | Kac/yr |
| tgwacres | Total Ground Water Acreage | Total ground water acreage | Kac/yr |
| ttacres | Total Acreage | Sum of SW and GW acreage | Kac/yr |
| precip_rate_p | Precipitation Rate by Year | Precipitation rate by year | ft/yr |
| source_p | Annual Basin Inflows at Headwaters From Precipitation | Annual basin inflows at headwaters from precipitation | ft/yr |
| rho_pop_p | Urban Population Growth Rate per Year | Urban population growth rate per year | 0 - 1 |
| urb_back_use | Urban Backstop Technology Use | Urban water use from backstop technology | KAF/yr |
| urb_back_aq_rch | Urban Return to Aquifer from Backstop Tech Recharging Aquifer | Urban water use from backstop technology recharging the aquifer | K AF/yr |
| total_ag_ben | Total Agricultural Benefits | Total agricultural benefits | 1000 USD |
| avginflows | Average Total Inflows | Total inflow average, excluding first year | KAF/yr |
| avgstocks | Average Reservoir Storage | Average project storage over selected period | KAF/yr |
| tot_inflows_p | Total Inflows Over Nodes by Period | KAF/yr | |
| avgwaterflows | Unknown to FAW | ||
| avgwaterdeliveries | Rio Grande Project Surface Deliveries | Average surface deliveries excluding first year over selected period | KAF/yr |
| tot_rg_deliveries | Unknown to FAW | ||
| avgswdivertions | Basin Surface Water Diversions | Average surface water diversions excluding first year over selected period | KAF/yr |
| avgswuse | Total Basin Surface Water Use | Average surface water use excluding first year over selected period | KAF/yr |
| tot_swuse | Unknown to FAW | ||
| avgriverflow | Basin Surface Flows | Average surface flows over selected period | KAF/yr |
| avgagpumping | Agricultural Ground Water Pumping | Average agricultural water pumping excluding first year over selected period | KAF/yr |
| avgurbpumping | Urban Groundwater Pumping | Average urban water pumping excluding first year over selected period | KAF/yr |
| avgurbbackuse | Urban Substitute Technology Use | Average urban water backstop technology use over selected period | KAF/yr |
| avgmxflows | US-Mexico Treaty Deliveries | Average US-MX treaty delivery flows excluding first year over selected period | KAF/yr |
| mx_flows | US Mexico 1906 Treaty Flows | KAF/yr | |
| total_ag_ben | Total Agricultural Benefits | Total Agricultural Benefits | KUSD |
| avgtotagben | Agricultural Economic Benefits | Average agricultural economic benefits excluding first year over selected period | KUSD |
| avgtoturbben | Urban Economic Benefits | Average urban economic benefits excluding first year over selected period | KUSD |
| avgenvben | Environmental River Benefits | Average environmental benefits | KUSD |
| avgrecben | Reservoir Recreation Economic Benefits | Average reservoir recreation economic benefits over selected period | KUSD |
| avgtotben | Total Economic Benefits | Average annual economic benefits over selected period | KUSD |
Contacts
Frank A. Ward
Dept of Agr Economics/Agr Business
New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM USA
fward@nmsu.edu
Alex Mayer
Michigan Technical University
asmayer@mtu.edu
Sponsored by US Dept of Agriculture: 5 yr project 2015 - 2020